The Picks! The NFL…October 11, 2009

Ahhhh, now the NFL. This is a good time of year. The NBA is starting up, College Football is in full swing, Baseball is FINALLY in the playoffs, and the NFL is truckin’.

I have to admit that the games this week are going to be weird and I have some weird thoughts so please bear with me as I sort through the messy weirdness that is the NFL right now.

Currently I’m 43-18 and I couldn’t be happier…I think I can do this!

Sunday October 11, 2009

Cincinnati @ Baltimore 1 P.M.

Cincinnati is one of those confusing teams that you’re not really sure what they’re really doing. Baltimore is one of those teams that is…straightforward…yeah, we’ll call it straightforward. I have no expectations for the Bengals to win this game, but I do expect to learn a lot about them when they play a team that is this good.

Baltimore’s offense is SOLID and their defense is what it’s always been, AMAZING (in other words, they won’t have to pray before this one.) Joe Flacco is turning out to be the “Golden Boy” in Baltimore (meanwhile I think I saw Kyle Boller playing in the NFL last week. I already forgot which team and I think that speaks to how badly the Ravens needed Joe Flacco…Kyle Boller was just that forgettable. Really, should we be surprised? He went to Cal, a forgettable school.) Meanwhile, Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are like wild animals that smell blood every week before toe meets leather, it’s ridiculous how intensely they are playing (especially since Ray is getting older.)

Cincinnati only has two ways to play this: 1) Throw the ball around like the world’s coming to an end hope some of it sticks…but not in Ed Reed’s direction. 2) Run the ball like it’s going out of style and hope the can keep the ball so long that Baltimore has no possession time.

Point 1 speaks to Carson Palmer’s ability. I really think he could just sling the ball around all day like he’s Dan Marino if that’s what he had to do. The question is whether his receivers will catch the ball and gain yards after the catch. If that happens the game stays close. Point 2 speaks to the fact that they are in the Central where most people immediately think RUN. If they hold the ball long enough to take away a large chunk of Baltimore’s possession time and they keep the game close and low-scoring then they have accomplished something.

Remember, I said I don’t expect them to win the game, but I expect that if they keep it close I will take them off the “what the hell is this team” list and put the on the “these people have it together list.” Since I have no expectations of a Cincy win I will still pick that way, but I want to know how close it is and see if the Bengals can show us and identity on Sunday.

BAL – 24 CIN – 21

Cleveland @ Buffalo 1 P.M.

“Garbage at Garbage”…that’s how I see this one. Dick Jauron has lost his team and Eric Mangini never had his. I still don’t know how he got the job in Cleveland, but he has it now and it just sucks.

The quarterback debacle (I know the picture doesn’t do the “badness” of the Cleveland QBs justice.  Whoever threw that paper actually hit the can a couple times) alone says enough about his coaching as it does about the lack of talent on the lake. Sometimes you have no talent and we can tell that it isn’t your fault and sometimes you have no talent and you make it worse. Doofgini is making it worse.

Cleveland is in the place that St. Louis is. They need to SUCK this season and clean house, draft a QB high and start over. They drafted Brady Quinn because they felt bad for him (you know what, I felt bad for him too. I really did, but that was no reason to pick him.) After they clean up (which may also involve firing coaches and front office staff) then they can start over in Cleveland.

Buffalo doesn’t need to suck, but they need a new voice. I don’t know if that means firing Dick Jauron or changing coordinators around. He already fired his OC right before the season and I’m not seeing how they can say “Well, we’ll let you move coordinators around and see what happens” when he kind of already did that. Then again, I don’t know what went on with ole Turk (the old Buffalo OC) and maybe he was a pain…who knows. Either way something needs to change and it needs to change soon. Once again, if I push and they don’t tie I take the loss.

CLE – 0 BUF – 0

Washington @ Carolina 1 P.M.

Washington has this crappy offense with a really nice quarterback and Carolina has a nice offense with a pretender quarterback. Anybody taking bets on this one?  (Personally, if I were Jason Campbell I’d be pissed that I was in the middle of this…it’s just ridiculous at this point.)

The bottom line is this: Carolina stinks, but not as bad as Washington. Think about it. Washington has had amazing defenses for years now and yet they can barely do anything most of the time. The sing Albert Haynesworth for more money than God has and they still can’t stop people.

Carolina is still in denial about Jake Delhomme and until the stop it they won’t get any better. He’s probably a really nice guy, but he ain’t cuttin’ it anymore. When are they going to wake up and find someone else? I don’t mean put in his backup, I mean go and FIND someone. I guess the Lions don’t think they need Daunte Culpepper, sing him! Jeff Garcia could be had. Why not make a deal to do SOMETHING instead of waiting for it to get better when you’re only better than Tampa because you don’t suck as bad as them. Really?

Washington still isn’t off the hook. They have a talented offense, but are they using them properly? If this offense worked we’d be hearing about Clinton Portis, Randle-El, Campbell, AND Chris Cooley EVERY week…Period! We don’t. Why not? Because the offense isn’t working. Jim Zorn THINKS he’s a genius. He thinks he’s got it figured out. Why in the world would you think THIS works? How deluded can you get? It’s moderately upsetting, not because I “care” about the Skins, but because he’s screwing up a proud franchise. Yuck!

CAR – 13 WAS – 6 (no TDs this week!)

Pittsburgh @ Detroit 1 P.M.

You know it’s bad that I’m chuckling as I read this game on the schedule. Someone, please explain to me how Detroit will beat Pittsburgh? I know that I was wrong about Cincy against Pittsburgh but they have shown themselves to be in the “We’re not quite sure yet” category. Detroit is BAD. We all know that. I said I wasn’t picking them and I ain’t gonna start. Let’s see how much Big Ben can put up and let’s see if Troy Polamalu comes back. He really doesn’t need to yet, but I love seeing him on the field (not just because of the hair, because he can play, but I do like the hair.) If you like car crashes and you don’t like NASCAR, was Pittsburgh T-Bone Detroit…it should be good.

PIT – 31 DET – 12

Dallas @ Kansas City 1 P.M.

I love games like this. I still contend that Dallas stinks and that Wade Phillips is going to be fired soon. KC made one of the worst acquisitions in the history of earth….what could be better!?

Listen, I don’t think Tony Romo is stupid, but the whole “did he know it was 4th Down thing” makes me wonder what’s going on in Big D. I know other people have screwed things like that up before, but am I to believe that he REALLY didn’t know? Come on! I don’t know what was going on, but he made a bad decision either way and he needs to get better at decision-making before something really bad happens like, they have a losing season. Guess whose head is on the block after Wade Phillips? You guessed it, ole Tony. Dallas is missing an element that they haven’t had for a while…”street smarts”. Nobody in their organization is street smart. Jimmy Johnson won those 3 Super Bowls (I know, Barry Switzer coached one, but it was Jimmy’s team) because he was street smart on every level. Please get someone smart in there and Jerry, for all that is HOLY, hire a GM.

Back to KC. Do you think they could pull a trade for another QB? I mean, Scott Pioli is a genius because he worked with Bill Belichick, right? {This makes me think of Mike D’Antoni and his offense that makes you look better than you really are {Look what it did for Steve Nash!}. Does Bill Belichick make people look better than they really are? I think so.} If they are stuck with Matt Cassel and he does not improve SOON, then something’s got to give. Todd Haley may not last after this season. I know this isn’t the NHL, but by golly it might be pretty soon. The first time a coach gets fired mid-season you watch other owners start doing the same thing…you just wait. Todd Haley might be first.

DAL – 7 KC – 6

Oakland @ Giants 1 P.M.

Once again, I laughed when I saw this. Does anybody seriously think that Eli Manning can lose to the Raiders? (I know his heel fell off and everything, but he doesn’t need it to beat them.)

Jamarcus Russell is the luckiest person on earth. His owner is a complete dimwit and he’s riding a ton of money, lots of talent, no work ethic, and a senile rich man to the bank. Good for you Jamarcus. If only you could play football too.

NYG – 27 OAK – 3

Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia 1 P.M.

This is another stinker. How in the world will the Bucs beat Philly even if Donovan’s ribs actually fall OFF his body? The Bucs look like the 1982 Bucs and they probably won’t get any better.  (Well, they could get Steve Deberg to come out of retirement.  It’s probably better than what they have now.)

I know Cadillac is supposed to be getting better, but he ain’t enough. Bo Jackson could be running the ball for them and it wouldn’t be enough. I’m sure Josh Johnson is a nice kid, but this is not the league for nice kids. I know Tampa USED to have a good defense (and it left with Monte Kiffin) so what do we have left? A nice stadium, a pirate ship, some cool uniforms, and no wins.

PHI – 30 TB – 0

Minnesota @ St. Louis 1 P.M.

Like I said, some of these games are just BAD. Again, how does anyone expect the lowly Rams to beat the Vikings? How? I feel like if I discuss it I’m going to get mad because the Rams suck so bad that they just need to stick to my plan for them and go 0-16 and pick first in the next draft.

MIN – 35 STL – 0 (yes, two straight 35-0 losses for the Rams)Atlanta @ San Francisco 4:05 P.M.

Now this one…this one is good. Finally a game with some “ummpphh”. San Francisco is hot…hot hot hot. Atlanta is coming off a bye that they desperately needed to shake off the loss to New England. San Francisco needs to keep its momentum and so does Atlanta. San Francisco has a caretaker at QB (Shaun Hill) Atlanta has a franchise at QB (Matt Ryan). San Fran relies a lot on its defense and Atlanta is slightly afraid of its defense having too much responsibility.

I’ve been thinking that Matt Ryan isn’t lighting things up, but he is still a leader on the field and that matters more than most things. He’s got Tony Gonzalez who was shut out of the last game. He’s got Roddy White (who looks great when a real QB is throwing him the ball) and he’s got Michael Turner. Are all those touches catching up with Michael Turner? Perhaps, but I don’t think he’s breaking down, I think he was tired.

In San Fran, Patrick Willis is coming alive on the defensive side of the ball and now I think he is becoming the FEATURE on that defense. It won’t take much for everyone in the league to have to start game-planning for him. That’s a good thing for San Fran.

If the Falcons OLine’s play is not exactly great (and they show that they weren’t as good as they looked last year) then the Falcons have problems. I think they’re slipping and San Fran is climbing. I can’t help but believe this is a character building loss for the Falcons who will go on a tear after this week.

SF – 24 ATL – 17

Houston @ Arizona 4:15 P.M.

Houston’s pretending and Arizona is falling behind in what should have been an easy division for them. How do I explain other than the Super Bowl losers curse? I don’t.

Just taking the game at face value I’d say Arizona wins because they have more bullets in their gun. What more is there to say?  No matter how far behind they fall in their division they’re STILL better than the Texans.

ARI – 28 HOU – 14

New England @ Denver 4:15 P.M.

Now this is juicy! Bill vs. Joshie. 3-1 vs. 4-0. Brady vs. Orton…..ok, that doesn’t sound as cool, but Denver has got me believin’!

I’m thinking about how this game will play out and I’m going to tell you what I HOPE I see on Sunday.

Kyle Orton, steady in the pocket, marching his team up and down the field as best he can. Tom Brady (of course) doing pretty much the same thing.

New England defending well. Denver defending well. The Denver crowd REALLY getting into it. New England getting flustered. New England righting the ship. Denver shooting back. Overtime.

What do I think WILL happen? Well, Denver is steady but I think this is where they get exposed a little. I believe in them so much as I believe they can win their division, win 10 games, and maybe even win a playoff game, but I don’t believe they can beat elite teams. Now, I know I’ve said the New England is crumbling as a “dynasty” but that doesn’t make them NOT elite. It just means that they aren’t threatening to go 16-0 ever again and it doesn’t make ever game a forgone conclusion that they will win.

The Patriots are still strong and they will show that. What is telling for me is how strong Denver will look. They only have two choices: 1) Stand up. 2) Lay down. If they stand up we know they can win 10 or so games and win a playoff game. If they lay down we know they’ll win their division (by the skin of their teeth) but they’ll get it done only to lose in the playoffs early.

Denver has a chance to show its mettle. They don’t have to win to show us their toughness, but they need to show us something.

NE – 24 DEN – 23

Jacksonville @ Seattle 4:15 P.M.

Another laugher. Listen. I think both these teams stink so let’s try to take a positive angle on this one.

If Matt Hasselbeck can go and he looks even halfway decent, then the Seahawks might be in business. If David Garrard looks like he did a couple years ago then the Jags are in business. The Jags are 2-2 but I just don’t think that 2-2 is legit. Somehow I read their name and I think “0-4″ Every time I think that. It goes back to last year’s mutiny where the team just fell apart around Jack Del Rio. I’m not saying that he can’t get it back together, but even if he is he still needs David Garrard to play the way they’re paying him. If he doesn’t how do they expect to win anything?

Aside from Hasselbeck Seattle needs some more offensive help. Apparently, Walter Jones (the future 1st Ballot Hall of Famer at Guard) is going to be out for a while. If Hasselbeck isn’t protected he won’t be able to distribute the ball, no one will respect their running game, and he’ll probably get hurt again, only this time much worse.

Does anybody in Seattle want to see Matt Hasselbeck on the ground in pieces? If you’re a Seattle fan this is the time you start hoping Matt is made of Lincoln Logs or something because you REALLY need to be able to put him back together and if he goes and gets killed on the field going back to Seneca Wallace is NOT an answer…it’s just a band aid.

What if he gets hurt again and misses the rest of the year? What if he gets hurt again and his career is effectively over? Then what?

All I’m saying is… be careful Jim Mora. I like you and I don’t want you to get fired over a dead Quarterback.

JAC – 17 SEA – 9

Indianapolis @ Tennessee 8:20 P.M.

I told my Dad on Sunday “No way Tennessee goes 0-4″;  he turns to me and says “Son, I’m afraid they’re going to.” I was so sure he was wrong…he was right.

I don’t know what’s going on. Jeff Fisher is solid. Kerry Collins is solid. Chris Johnson is solid. Where did the fire go? It’s like they can’t do anything. Literally, can’t do anything. I have a theory:

Tennessee is in a division with Indy, Houston, and Jacksonville. They have been good for a couple years now and they are still dealing with the Vince Young thing. The Vince Young thing is the downer. Think about it. Ever since he went AWOL and reports came out that he was contemplating suicide I think the team has been stung by the enormity of it all.

If you were a dude who played on a pro football team and you heard one of your teammates thought about offing himself how would that make you feel? They should’ve taken it all the way last season and they didn’t. They couldn’t mentally get over it. I think Jeff Fisher is in the same boat. Every time he sees Vince he thinks “Oh my gosh, what is going on here!?” I think it’s time for Vince to go.

The Titans need to move Vince Young, get him some new scenery, and give the team less to feel bad about. How can you be emotionally committed to a football game when everywhere you look there’s your teammate who has OBVIOUS psychological issues. This hits older guys more than younger guys because they have kids and families and I can assure you that you can’t be thinking about that stuff and playing NFL football, but if you try to, you’ll lose. And that’s what the Titans have been doing…losing.

They want out of this: Trade Vince tomorrow. Not because you don’t like him, but for his (and your) own good.

Draft a decent Quarterback next year and train him up. Kerry Collins is the Robocop…he’s never gonna die anyways so why are you in a hurry. This season is dead if you don’t move Vince…it’s alive (only in draft status) if you move him now.

IND – 28 TEN – 6

Monday October 12, 2009

Jets @ Miami 8:30 P.M.

The Jets made a sick trade to get Braylon Edwards and they just got ALOT better. If you think for one moment that having Braylon Edwards running down the field and catching passes doesn’t make them better then you’re crazy!

With Mark Sanchez getting a receiver that stretches the field…that he can GROW with, he is bound to get much better. Braylon Edwards is the kind of receiver that will make Sanchez NOT look like a rookie.  They can set tandem passing and receiving records.   Know what I mean?

Miami isn’t catching the Jets defense off-guard with the Wildcat (since Rex Ryan is smart…all the smart defensive minds they meet just give them some ground and let it fizzle out.) I want to see how Chad Henne does, but I don’t expect much (though I hope he’s the future in Miami.)

NYJ – 27 MIA – 10

The Bears, Packers, Saints and Chargers get a week off. The Bears just get to reload…good for them (bad for their opponents) and the Packers get a week to decide who in heck they are. The Saints get a week reload (which is about like us dropping the Bomb on Japan twice. Was that really necessary, or was it overkill. To most of the league the Saints getting a break is overkill. Like they need it! The Chargers also get a week to decide who they are. I keep saying they are as good as advertised and until they prove to me that they know who they are I’m staying off….way off!

Enjoy this week in football…I expect more X-Files-like weirdness.